Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
